Last week, NHCA was contacted by a major national television network for a live interview in anticipation of newly announced tariffs. As soon as we were approached, we began analyzing key construction data sets to offer some insight into how these tariffs could impact our industry.

At the time, the expectation was that a range of new tariffs would be unveiled—most notably, on wood imports. However, when it became clear that Canada would be excluded from the announcement, the network chose to pivot to another story.

While Canada’s exclusion is certainly welcome news, to some extent, the damage has already been done. What both the press and the public are overlooking is the toll that ongoing uncertainty is already taking on materials pricing.

As many of you may already know, Canada is by far the largest exporter of wood to the U.S., accounting for between 40% and 45% of all imported lumber. China is a distant second at around 10%. Wood—whether imported or domestic—is a key cost driver in construction, comprising 15% to 30% of total project costs depending on the type of build. Its versatility is unmatched, used for everything from framing and sheathing to trim and other critical components.

So it’s easy to see how even modest price increases in this commodity can have a significant ripple effect on overall project costs.

What’s being missed in the broader conversation is this: construction costs are already rising—dramatically. Even without formal tariffs in place, the mere threat of tariffs has helped push lumber prices up 12% year to date. This increase is being driven by a few key factors:

• Domestic suppliers are placing a premium on their lumber.

• Contractors and builders are stockpiling materials to hedge against further price hikes.

• Market sentiment suggests that a long-term resolution isn’t likely anytime soon.

To put the trend in perspective: as of April 6, 2025, lumber futures have risen sharply. In January, the RoMac Building Supply Wood Commodity Index reported prices at $413.95 per thousand board feet. By early April, those futures had climbed to around $678.50—a 63.9% increase in just a few months.

While lumber is a major driver of construction costs—particularly in the single-family home market—other materials are also being affected by recent tariffs. A wide range of finished goods from Asia are now subject to increased costs, including:

• Flooring materials

• Wall panels

• Roofing supplies

• Insulation

• Steel components

Individually, these items may only make up a small portion of total project expenses. But in aggregate, they represent a meaningful increase in the overall cost to build.

In short, while we may have dodged a bullet in the form of Canadian lumber tariffs—for now—contractors and builders are still getting hit. Not by one massive blow, but by a thousand small cuts.

Want to understand how these rising material costs are impacting productivity across the construction industry—especially for Hispanic workers and businesses? Dive deeper into the data and insights in our ?State of Hispanics in Construction Report, where we break down the ripple effects of price hikes and what they mean for the future of the industry.

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